Until all member states recognize Kosovo’s independence, the EU cannot process Kosovo’s membership application like other applicants.
Shortly after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Kosovo’s parliament urged the government to pursue membership in NATO, the EU, and the Council of Europe by any means. On December 15, 2022, Kosovo submitted its official application for membership in the European Union. As the last country in the Western Balkans to do so, and the first applicant whose independence is recognized by only a portion of EU member states, Kosovo’s application is seen as symbolic, with actual membership still far off.
Following NATO bombings that forced Serbia to withdraw its forces from the province aspiring for independence, the UN took over the administration of Kosovo. After the disintegration of Yugoslavia and before the UN rule, the Kosovar Albanian population had lived under a system that legally supported their oppression. Albanian civil servants were removed from state positions, and social functions like schools and clinics were transferred to private homes. The war in 1999 opened a new future for the Albanian population under UN civilian administration and the protection of NATO’s KFOR troops.
The international community sought a negotiated solution to Kosovo’s status. Serbia (with its allies in the UN Security Council) did not accept Kosovo’s independence, which was proposed by UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari and his negotiating team. After the failure of independence through the UN, Kosovo’s leaders declared the country independent on February 17, 2008, promising to adhere to Ahtisaari’s plan for Kosovo’s status and inviting the EU’s civilian crisis management operation. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) on July 22, 2010, in an advisory opinion, stated that “the declaration of independence of Kosovo of February 17, 2008, did not violate international law,” thereby affirming the legality of Kosovo’s declaration of independence.
The European Union Rule of Law Mission (EULEX) is the EU’s largest civilian operation under its Common Security and Defence Policy. EULEX has raised high expectations among both the local population and the international community, but it has struggled to meet these expectations. Corruption allegations have undermined trust in the operation, which initially had broad powers in criminal investigations and courts. Its function has since become more advisory, focusing on technical state-building rather than political culture development. Nevertheless, without the EU operation, Kosovo might not have its current functional police, judicial system, or correctional institutions, all built with international support post-war.[1]
Kosovo’s independence is still mostly attributed to the support of the United States in the 1990s. To this day, the country often looks to the U.S. in challenging situations, and without NATO troops and U.S. support, the situation in the Western Balkans might be much more unstable. While the Kosovo Police is the first responder in riot situations, EULEX police support the Kosovo Police as needed. However, KFOR troops are still present, particularly stabilizing Kosovo’s Serbian-majority areas, where unrest often erupts, such as at the northern border.
Kosovo has long been on the list of potential EU member states, and the European Council has given it a clear “European perspective.” However, a significant challenge is Serbia, another applicant country that still regards Kosovo as a province in rebellion. Josep Borrell, in 2020, described the normalization of Kosovo-Serbia relations as a test for the EU to solve problems in its immediate vicinity.[2] To date, the results have been tenuous.
Although the European Parliament urged all EU countries to recognize Kosovo’s independence in 2010, Spain (due to its own separatist challenges), Slovakia, Cyprus, Romania, and Greece, each with their internal political reasons, have not yet done so. Until all member states recognize Kosovo’s independence, the EU cannot process Kosovo’s membership application like other applicants.[3]
Some of these five countries might be willing to recognize Kosovo’s independence if Serbia does the same. The EU’s shared goal of integrating the entire Balkans into the EU – and moving away from the influence of other major powers – cannot succeed without Kosovo.
There is also the fear that the first one to join the EU (Kosovo or Serbia – a candidate since 2012) could use its veto power to block the other’s membership. Numerous agreements have been made in the normalization dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, but fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. Uncertainty about EU prospects, such as the slow progress of visa liberalization compared to other Western Balkan countries, also diminishes Kosovar faith in EU membership. While residents of other Western Balkan countries have enjoyed visa-free travel to the EU for over a decade, Kosovars are still waiting for visa liberalization, expected to begin in early 2024.
However, despite the unsure international status, Kosovars have not lost hope for the future, a sentiment reinforced by the independence. A 2020 IRI survey found that 52% of Kosovars believe young people in their country have a bright future ahead – a stark contrast to nearly non-existent optimism in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Among former Yugoslav countries outside the EU, Kosovo was the only one where the majority felt life was better now than before Yugoslavia’s disintegration. The perception of the level of democracy in the country was also the highest in the survey.[4]
SAMUEL TAMMEKANN
[1] Arber Fetahu. 2022. Entrenched between enlargement fatigue and domestic obstacles: Kosovo’s bumpy road towards the EU. Clingendael Report 2022: The EU as a promoter of democracy or ‘stabilitocracy’ in the Western Balkans? Helmikuu 2022
[2] Michael Peel ja Ben Hall. 2020. “EU’s Neighbourhood ‘Engulfed in Flames’, Warns Foreign Policy Chief”, Financial Times, 13.9.2020.
[3] Jean-Baptiste Chastand ja Philippe Jacqué, 2022. ”Kosovo begins long road toward EU membership.” Le Monde, 16.12.2022.
[4] International Republican Institute, 2020. Western Balkans Regional Poll. 2.6.2020.
Incomplete recognition: The EU has encouraged Kosovo to progress with reforms and the normalization process by promising a future within the union, but as long as some member states do not recognize its independence, membership is not possible.
Tensions with Serbia: The normalization process with Serbia has been stagnant for years, and tensions in North Kosovo and on the Serbian border still occasionally escalate into violence.
Completing integration: Kosovo has been integrating its economy and state structures with the EU for a long time. However, progress in areas such as visa liberalization has been slow.
Fulfilling aspirations: Kosovo has looked westward throughout its process of independence. In 2020, 93% of Kosovars supported EU membership.
